Why Arabs shouldn't expect much from Trump

It might be understandable that certain Arab leaders feel some sense of relief, if only slightly, at the return of someone they see as their ally—President Donald Trump, re-elected for a second term—to the White House. His return brings back memories of the paths and policies he began, which they perceive as beneficial to their interests. This sense of relief follows years of frustration that began with former Democratic President Barack Obama and continued through an entire similar term under Joe Biden. Biden, to some extent, effectively governed under the shadow of Obama’s policies, with little space to deviate from the framework Obama had established during his presidencies from 2008 to 2016.

Trump has not been tried or tested in conflicts, nor in the ever-shifting realities of a region standing on the edge of an abyss. What awaits him now is quite different from what many believe. It’s just that we, in crisis-stricken countries, only want to see outcomes and things go our way, on our terms. However, the majority wants to see a swift, bloody end, without batting an eye.

In the Arab, and particularly Gulf, perspective—one that goes beyond mere belief—the Obama-Biden administrations’ policies were concerning on several levels, especially with the forms of “blackmail” and pressure tactics they used, specifically in matters relating to the internal affairs of these countries. Additionally, they viewed Iran as a key player in the region, one that, from the American perspective, could create a type of "constructive chaos" to keep the region as it is, in a state of continuous instability, with conflicts shifting among its countries and within them without drastically affecting any outside the region. Obama, who openly expressed a preference for dealing with the "Shiites" over the "Sunnis," made this clear.

In Trump’s first term—where he often claimed his choices were shaped by direct economic interests—the Gulf states succeeded in building a favorable relationship with him. For instance, he opened wide channels of communication with Saudi Arabia, signing what became the largest agreements in US history, securing a $380 billion partnership deal with Riyadh during his visit in May 2017.

In contrast, Trump had made it clear he was unwilling to negotiate with Iran as he would with other countries. His calculations here were split between financial interests in the Gulf and unlimited support for Israel. A year after signing agreements with Riyadh, he withdrew from the nuclear deal with Iran and reimposed sanctions—a move that served as reassurance to Gulf nations that the US was back to supporting them fully and that the policies of the previous US administration towards Tehran had come to an end, ushering in a new era of mutual understanding with the Gulf. The Gulf countries understood that Trump wanted money in exchange for promoting their interests, and both sides got what they wanted.

In Gulf memory, particularly on the popular level rather than the official one, many Arabs believe that Trump is the president who will stand with their countries as he supposedly did in the past. Many repeat the notion that he is the man who knows how to end conflicts, even though Trump, in his first term, did not manage to resolve any of the ongoing conflicts, especially the major ones in the Arab region, from Yemen to Palestine.

Amid all this, we can’t overlook what Trump considers his “greatest achievement”: the Abraham Accords, which he brokered between Israel on one side and the UAE and Bahrain on the other. These accords normalized relations between these nations, and were followed by extensive economic cooperation, particularly between the UAE and Israel, and opened the door for other countries, albeit less visibly, like Morocco and Sudan, to join the fold. Saudi Arabia was also on track to sign a similar agreement, if not for Operation Al-Aqsa Flood and the ongoing genocidal war Israel launched against Gaza, which has since expanded to include Lebanon as well.

In Gulf memory, particularly on the popular level rather than the official one, many Arabs believe that Trump is the president who will stand with their countries as he supposedly did in the past. Many repeat the notion that he is the man who knows how to end conflicts, even though Trump, in his first term, did not manage to resolve any of the ongoing conflicts, especially the major ones in the Arab region, from Yemen to Palestine.

The joy or enthusiasm for Trump’s return, especially among some Arab audiences, primarily stems from the perception that he “hates Iran” and is based on his perceived animosity towards the Islamic Republic rather than his supposed talent for “deal-making.” Even if Trump were capable of brokering deals that favor the Arabs in specific or scattered areas, the current reality of the regional landscape and Arab countries is vastly different from what it was between 2016 and 2020, during Trump’s previous term.

The joy for Trump’s return, especially among some Arab audiences, is primarily based on his perceived animosity towards Iran rather than his supposed talent for “deal-making.” Even if Trump were capable of brokering deals that favor the Arabs in specific areas, the current reality of the regional and Arab landscape is vastly different from what it was between 2016 and 2020, during Trump’s previous term.

In reality, what applied during Trump’s first term may not be replicable today. Gulf countries are in an entirely different place now; they currently see the United States as just one component of a broader strategic approach. The sole aspect Gulf countries view optimistically in Trump’s victory is simply the end of the Democratic era, which they regard as one of the worst periods in the history of US-Gulf relations, especially since Obama’s administration. However, they also recall that even during Trump’s time in office, they faced precarious situations and didn’t receive the level of support they had anticipated, particularly in ongoing conflicts like Yemen and in response to the threats and attacks by the Houthis on Gulf targets.

The Gulf states have come to realize that relying solely on an alliance with the United States is no longer as viable as it once was. The leverage of oil, which proved powerful in the 1970s, no longer holds the same influence. In response, these states have shifted toward policies that focus on benefiting from oil internally and maximizing oil's domestic value to advance their economic landscape and are leveraging their geographic location and vast resources to assert themselves as global policy influencers, a shift evident in many of their recent strategies.

For example, the Saudi-Chinese trade volume in 2024 surpassed 100 billion dollars and continues to rise significantly every year. The cooperation between the two countries is also taking an upward trajectory in many vital sectors. In November of last year, the central banks of both countries announced the signing of a cooperation agreement worth 50 billion Chinese yuan, or 7 billion dollars. While this figure may not seem significant compared to other trade exchanges and agreements, its significance lies in the fact that it opened the door for China to test the use of its currency in global trade, away from the dollar, which has dominated global trade since the end of World War II.

This new reality necessitates viewing a second Trump term in a way that is entirely different from what came before. The Arab mind, especially that of the Gulf states, has changed, and so has Trump, who reconciled with the world’s and his country’s fiercest, most historic rivals and longstanding adversaries.

Things didn't stop there; Saudi Arabia began military cooperation with China and signed weapon purchase deals amounting to about 8% of its total military contracts. The most significant shift, however, was China's role in facilitating the Saudi-Iranian "reconciliation" agreement by hosting direct talks between the two sides, which lasted for two years before culminating in a trilateral statement that ended a rift dating back to 2016, along with years of tense relations preceding that rupture. This was followed by many changes, the latest of which was the joint military exercise conducted by both Saudi Arabia and Iran a few weeks ago.

The same applies to the UAE, which has significantly strengthened its commercial ties with China in recent years. The trade volume between the two countries rose from $56 billion in 2018 to nearly $96 billion in 2023, and continues to grow with signed cooperation agreements in energy, alternative energies, shipbuilding, marketing, trade, and many other sectors.

Many in our Arab world overlook the reality, always waiting for someone to offer a way out, but this sought-after salvation has yet to arrive and will never come in this form, especially not from Trump.

This new reality necessitates viewing a second Trump term in a way that is entirely different from what came before. The Arab mind, especially that of the Gulf states, has changed, and Trump, who reconciled with the world’s and his country’s fiercest and most historic rivals—specifically Russia, with whom he shares a good relationship with President Vladimir Putin—faced China with all his strength. For him, China’s economic power is something that must be curtailed. With its expansion in recent years in the region, his previous policies may need to be re-evaluated, and a new reality in the region must be understood, one that is very different from the past. This is especially true since many Arab countries are part of the Belt and Road Initiative, which Biden tried to bypass with his India-EU Economic Corridor (IMEC) initiative passing through the Middle East, an initiative that many consider to be vague and, so far, ineffectual.

More than this, many in our Arab world overlook the reality, always waiting for someone to offer a way out, but this sought-after salvation has yet to arrive and will never come in this form, especially not from Trump.

The view that Trump will end this conflict quickly, based on his opposition to Iran and his desire to strike its nuclear program—something Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dreams of—remains a narrow and short-sighted perspective. Such a view ignores the history of a man who only cares about the interests of his country and will not engage in wars for anyone, even for Israel, which he considers himself “its best friend.”

All these transformations, added to the changing reality in the Eastern Mediterranean, especially the ongoing Israeli aggression on Gaza and Lebanon, open the door to significant possibilities in the coming phase. However, the view that Trump will end this conflict quickly, based on his opposition to Iran and his desire to strike its nuclear program—something Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dreams of—remains a narrow and short-sighted perspective. Such a view ignores the history of a man who only cares about the interests of his country and will not engage in wars for anyone, even for Israel, which he considers himself “its best friend.”

Today, Israel has one of the most extreme governments in its history, and its bloody expansionist project will not stop as long as there are those who fund and support it. Its extremist leaders believe that what they are doing is reclaiming what they see as "rightfully theirs," as they often say. Some believe Trump will expedite a settlement, which they see only as a settlement at the expense of Iranian influence. They think Trump has the ability to bring about a decisive resolution, and in their view, this resolution may involve striking Iran, particularly its nuclear program.

Trump has not been tried or tested in conflicts, nor in the ever-shifting realities of a region standing on the edge of an abyss. What awaits him now is quite different from what many believe. It’s just that we, in crisis-stricken countries, only want to see outcomes and things go our way, on our terms. However, the majority wants to see a swift, bloody end, without batting an eye.

Today, Israel has one of the most extreme governments in its history, and its bloody expansionist project will not stop as long as there are those who fund and support it. Its extremist leaders believe that what they are doing is reclaiming what they see as "rightfully theirs," as they often say. Simply waiting for the next two months until Trump arrives will be alarming, especially since it is clear that what Netanyahu seeks is not peace. The man is preparing to complete what he started, expand it further, and drag the world with him into his personal playground.

In light of all this, simply waiting for the next two months until Trump arrives will be alarming and terrifying, especially since it is clear that what Netanyahu seeks is not peace. The man is preparing to complete what he started, expand it further, and drag the world with him into his personal playground. As for Trump, who loves "dictators" and "dictatorships," much awaits him, and it is certain that what awaits him is not just a ‘businessman outing’ on a golf course.