Ten years in power: How has Egypt’s environmental and climate governance fared in Sisi's Egypt? (1)

In June 2014, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi came to power. Since then, Egypt’s government has shifted from viewing climate issues as a nonissue to moving to organize the world’s biggest annual climate conference. Despite the apparent changes in Egypt’s rhetoric on the global level, matters locally remain bleak. 

Egypt hosted the 27th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP27) in November 2022. At the conference, Egypt's presidency led efforts on the Loss and Damage Fund to provide financial assistance to nations most vulnerable and impacted by the effects of climate change.

In the months preceding the conference and as negotiators came together in the coastal city of Sharm el-Sheikh, the volume of the climate crisis conversation increased in the public sphere. It was a “brief moment,” as urbanist and environmental researcher Nouran el-Marsafy put it. “Until now,” she said, “the climate is not a driving force for the government.”

Raseef22 interviewed numerous Egyptian environmentalists to better understand why. All interviewees agree that the Egyptian government does not consider climate change—including its political, social, and economic dimensions—a priority, nor essential policy. They stated officials instead exploit climate discourse propagandistically and use it for potential benefits, particularly foreign funding.

On the tenth anniversary of Sisi’s accession to power, this two-part feature investigates how Egypt’s environmental and climate governance has fared over the past decade. 

Greenhouse gas emissions and Egypt’s oil and gas sector

In June 2022, Egypt submitted its updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), self-defined national climate pledges under the Paris Agreement, which Cairo ratified in June 2017. Egypt’s biggest pledged slash in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions was from the oil and gas sector, targeting a 65 percent reduction by 2030.

Between 2005 and 2019, Egypt’s GHG emissions dramatically increased by about 44 percent, primarily driven by the power and transport sectors. In 2021 Egypt's energy mix consisted almost entirely of fossil fuels, with gas accounting for 55 percent, oil for 37 percent, and coal for 2 percent of the state’s energy consumption. Between 2000 and 2021, the use of gas rose by over 300 percent, while oil use rose by 61 percent, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Between 2005 and 2019, Egypt’s GHG emissions dramatically increased by about 44 percent, primarily driven by the power and transport sectors. In 2021 Egypt's energy mix consisted almost entirely of fossil fuels, with gas accounting for 55 percent, oil for 37 percent, and coal for 2 percent of the state’s energy consumption. Between 2000 and 2021, the use of gas rose by over 300 percent, while oil use rose by 61 percent, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Despite its commitments, Egypt’s search for new oil and gas deposits has not ended. Egypt signed around 83 oil and gas exploration deals with international oil companies between November 2013 and February 2020, worth about USD 15.5 billion, according to the International Trade Administration. In February 2024 BP announced plans to inject up to $1.5 billion in exploration activities in Egypt.

“Egypt’s entire fiscal policy puts a priority on expansion and growth over the wellbeing of the people, including in relation to the environment and climate,” said an Egyptian environmental activist who preferred to remain anonymous for safety reasons.

Describing its economic growth model as “colonial,” he explained that “Egypt is allowing more explorations and international oil companies to exploit us because of the need for immediate foreign currency. The country is in a tight economic situation because of debt structures. The global financial systems that we are operating in, under institutions like the International Monetary Fund, are very unfair.”

“Developed countries are going to submit ambitious NDCs, claiming [they are] phasing out of fossil fuels, and stating how great they are doing. Meanwhile, their international oil and gas companies go to Africa and other parts of the Global South, exploit us, put us in more debt, and walk away with billions of dollars [in] profits. No, they are not doing great. We need to realize this trap,” he said.

“Developed countries are going to submit ambitious NDCs, claiming [they are] phasing out of fossil fuels, and stating how great they are doing. Meanwhile, their international oil and gas companies go to Africa and other parts of the Global South, exploit us, put us in more debt, and walk away with billions of dollars [in] profits. No, they are not doing great. We need to realize this trap,” he said.

Egypt needs an accelerated shift toward more investments in renewables that focus on energy sovereignty and are not only designed for exports, he believes. The share of renewables in Egypt’s power generation is currently at 11.5 percent.

Meanwhile, he states Egypt and many developing countries need to tax international oil and gas companies and put forth policies that redistribute their “incredible” profits. “Instead of locking us in vicious cycles of dependency on fossil fuels, the government needs to put forth projects and policies that focus on health and education, and reevaluate the aggressive growth models which do not actually benefit the economy or the Egyptian people.”

Egypt does not have a long-term emissions reduction target, something noticeably absent in its 2050 National Climate Change Strategy.

Solid waste management and plastic promises

Sisi’s administration continued the National Solid Waste Management Program, an Egyptian-German collaborative project developed to enhance and strengthen Egypt’s solid waste management. The program focuses on improving Egypt’s public service governance. The program saw rounds of planning in 2017 and 2018 looking to develop national frameworks and projects, according to an environmental management specialist who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

The government concluded the program’s reports in 2019 and now has unified data on the waste volume in each of the country’s 27 governorates, as well as data on existing waste management equipment and their conditions. “This was a big positive step,” and the government can develop plans based on this data, the specialist said. However, aside from pilot projects in Assiut, Kafr Al Sheikh, and Qena, these masterplans were never implemented, he noted.

In 2020 Egypt got its first waste management law, Law No. 202 of 2020, before which the country had the General Public Cleaning Law in place since 1967. The new law prohibits the burning of solid waste—a common practice in Egypt.

The Waste Management Regulatory Authority was founded in 2015, operating under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Environment. The new law provided “sufficient” clarity on the role of the authority. Yet, “we are yet to see them do anything substantive aside from [issuing] a bunch of reports,” the specialist said. Furthermore, many authoritative bodies in Egypt are unaware of the roles the law lays out for them, especially those under the Ministries of Local Development and Housing, he pointed out.

Law 202 also introduced Egypt’s first plastic use regulation. Article 27 of Law 202 created a legislative framework to introduce a ban on any plastic bag below a thickness of 50 millimeters. The Prime Minister’s Office thereafter created and spearheaded a committee for plastic to tackle plastic pollution, estimated to be 3.6 million tons annually.

“Since 2017, the government has been talking more about plastic but at a very surface level. It has been reluctant to enforce any form of regulation, and has not been able to navigate the plastic industry,” stated the specialist, describing the government’s approach as “reactive.” It supports some cleanups, such as efforts to remove waste from the Nile, and creates a few alternatives. "That’s it.”

“Since 2017, the government has been talking more about plastic, but at a very surface level. It has been reluctant to enforce any form of regulation, and has not been able to navigate the plastic industry,” stated the specialist, describing the government’s approach as “reactive.” It supports some cleanups, such as efforts to remove waste from the Nile, and creates a few alternatives. "That’s it.”

“The government [has] not [been] willing to delve deeper into the plastic discussion until now. It does not want to get to the root causes associated with overconsumption, production, and design of products. Even though the Egyptian Organization for Standardization and Quality decided on plastic design criteria, certain types of plastics, and alternative types of plastic, we've not seen this being adopted,” the specialist revealed to Raseef22.

Egypt is still following its old approach for waste management across the country, he decried, including open-air landfills, improper garbage segregation, and burning.

“Since Law 202 was ratified, we are yet to see any on-the-ground implementation. It’s good to have a law and executive regulations that go into detail and provide the tools for waste management. But it’s not that useful if we are not going to actually use it,” he said.

He also highlighted the situation resembles that of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s administration: Ten years into his rule, Sisi’s government has continued to overlook the informal sector.

Half of Egypt’s waste management sector is under the control of informal workers, which refers to laborers not officially hired by the government or a private, taxable body. The specialist emphasized informal workers dominate waste management in big urban areas, such as Cairo’s Zabbaleen (Garbage City). He particularly denounced the sector’s lack of health and safety standards, especially with women and child laborers. Although there are tens of thousands working in informal waste management, the exact number of informal workers is unknown.

Half of Egypt’s waste management sector is under the control of informal workers, which refers to laborers not officially hired by the government or a private, taxable body. Although there are tens of thousands working in informal waste management, the exact number of informal workers is unknown.

“The government does not want to integrate the informal sector into its plans. But if it wants to improve the management of solid waste, and ignores a key stakeholder, it is probably wasting its time,” he believes. Informal workers provide a wide range of services at various price points, and the informal waste management sector provides thousands of jobs to disadvantaged community members. Consequently, Egypt's informal waste management sector is considered irreplaceable.

The Sisi government has turned its back on anything informal, and constantly thinks of replacing rather than repairing, he explained. This extends to other sectors, such as urban planning. Instead of working on slum areas that are suffering, it built the New Administrative Capital.

Urban development and transportation 

Urban development is a significant component of Egypt's NDCs, el-Marsafy highlighted. The plan encourages sustainability in both new and existing urban areas by supporting low-carbon standards and green architecture. Measures include improving public transportation and developing green spaces to reduce GHGs and enhance the quality of life in Egyptian cities.

Between 2005 and 2019, the transport sector saw one of the largest GHG emission increases in the country, at 76 percent. Egypt aims for a 7 percent reduction in GHGs by 2030 from the sector. However, Egyptian officials have not mentioned how to deal with emissions in crowded areas, or how to start creating low-emission zones, el-Marsafy said.

Turning to a “cleaner” energy source, the government launched the Aging Vehicle Replacement Initiative in 2014. By 2023, 500,000 vehicles were fueled with compressed natural gas. Even though the government advertised the initiative as one helping it achieve its climate goals, some view this effort as emerging from a surplus of gas at the time, which no longer exists. Its ambition to become a regional gas hub and a major exporter of liquefied natural gas is paused, as a shortage of gas to supply its power plants has led to severe power cuts.

In its updated NDCs, Egypt aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity sector by 33 percent by 2030 through improved efficiency and increasing renewable energy capacity to 42 percent by 2035.

El-Marsafy believes that so far, renewable energy is faring the best of Egypt’s NDCs because of available funding. However, regulations for smaller businesses and domestic use are unclear. This poses the question of how just and clean Egypt’s energy transition is if it is not inclusive, cross-sectoral, and equitable. Governance mechanisms and roles in this transition are also vague—especially whether it is on the Ministry of Electricity or private operating companies to implement the energy transition. El-Marsafy also notes the private funding and loans model, in which foreign governments offer access to renewables through private loans, has a questionable effect on the transition’s sustainability.

Meanwhile, Egypt's “relentless” real estate expansion is causing significant environmental harm, urban researcher Ahmed Zaazaa told Raseef22. This expansion is driven by investment purposes rather than meeting housing needs, resulting in a surplus in units, which might lead to the creation of “ghost cities.”

In 2017 the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics reported 12.8 million uninhabited units in Egypt. Such profit-driven urban expansion includes areas like the New Administrative Capital, New AlAlameen, New Sphinx, New 6th of October, alShurouk, and many other “fourth-generation cities.” The number of uninhabited units is enough to house a third of Egypt’s population, which is the exact equivalent of Egypt’s poor, Zaazaa noted.

The Egyptian government's focus on real estate investment, including its self-assigned role as market manager and developer, exacerbates the environmental issues instead of addressing them.

The extraction, transportation, and manufacturing of construction materials such as cement, steel, and chemicals are highly taxing on natural resources and the environment, he pointed out. Construction and demolition processes consume large amounts of energy and water, generating emissions and waste.

The Egyptian government's focus on real estate investment, including its self-assigned role as market manager and developer, exacerbates the environmental issues instead of addressing them, the urban researcher said.

El-Marsafy agrees. “Laws and building codes in Egypt have yet to effectively integrate and mandate sustainable principles. Additionally, transforming most of the entities responsible for urban development into business-focused bodies makes achieving green goals more challenging.”

Massacring trees, increasing air pollution, and warming cities 

Besides the profit-driven urban expansion, Sisi’s regime has been under fire for continuously cutting down trees from the country’s already limited green spaces, an act publicly described as a green “massacre.” Egypt saw a reduction of approximately 5,060,000 square meters of green spaces and tree cover between 2013 and 2023, according to the Global Forest Watch. This loss was primarily due to urban development and desertification, and the clearing of green areas for industrial and commercial purposes.

The per capita share of trees in Egypt has declined to just one tree, according to the Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights’ November 2022 report “Lest the Green Disappears.” The per capita share of green spaces has decreased to only 17 square meters, far below the World Health Organization's recommendation of 9 square meters per person. Egypt’s long-term development plan Vision 2050 aims to increase the per capita green space to 15 square meters.

Despite Egypt introducing the "Get Ready for Green" initiative as part of its 2030 strategy to raise environmental awareness, preserve protected areas, and emphasize the importance of afforestation, it has not yet demonstrated any substantive impact.

Amid scorching heat waves and a power crisis, “warming rates within Egypt’s urban cities have significantly increased due to tree cutting and road expansion,” El-Marsafy noted. She added that atmospheric particulates causing air pollution and health issues have also increased because of demolition activities and urban waste disposal methods.

Air pollution was the cause of 90,000 premature deaths in Egypt in 2019, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). The annual nationwide average PM2.5 concentration, which poses a great risk to people’s health, is 13.6 times greater than the WHO’s recommended concentration levels.

“The most infuriating truth about climate change is its interconnectedness. That searing breath of air you just inhaled could have been cooler if we had more green spaces; fewer concrete jungles and reckless urbanization; fewer carbon emissions from our relentless commutes and construction, bridges, and roads; and fossil-based electricity sources,” environmental researcher Nouran el-Marsafy stated.

“The most infuriating truth about climate change is its interconnectedness. That searing breath of air you just inhaled could have been cooler if we had more green spaces; fewer concrete jungles and reckless urbanization; fewer carbon emissions from our relentless commutes and construction, bridges, and roads; and fossil-based electricity sources,” el-Marsafy stated.

“This oppressive heat might be far more bearable if governments actually honored their promises and took decisive action based on localized scientific evidence and needs. It's time to take actions seriously,” she concluded.