Ten years in power: How has Egypt’s environmental and climate governance fared in Sisi's Egypt? (2)

In June 2014, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi came to power. Since then, Egypt’s government has shifted from viewing climate issues as a nonissue to moving to organize the world’s biggest annual climate conference. Despite the apparent changes in Egypt’s rhetoric on the global level, matters locally remain bleak. On the tenth anniversary of Sisi’s accession to power, this two-part feature investigates how Egypt’s environmental and climate governance has fared over the past decade. Read part one here. 

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, from 1991 to 2010, climate change caused an accumulative loss of 12 percent of Egypt’s GDP per capita. Egypt faces significant threats to its water resources, food security, and biodiversity due to the climate crisis, compounded by a chronically underfunded and weak Ministry of Environment, several environmental experts told Raseef22. In part two, Raseef22 looks at agriculture and food security, the impact of the climate crisis on small-scale farmers, water resource management, and biodiversity.

Agriculture and the climate crisis in Egypt 

Agriculture plays a vital role in Egypt’s economy. This sector, including livestock, is essential for sustaining the livelihoods of many Egyptians. In 2021, it accounted for an estimated 15 percent of Egypt’s GDP, employing the highest share of the total workforce at 25 percent. Agriculture contributes to approximately 18 percent of the commodity export earnings.

Agriculture is particularly sensitive to the climate crisis. About 15 percent of the most fertile arable land in the Nile Delta is already negatively affected by sea level rise and saltwater intrusion, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Extreme weather conditions such as drought, frost, heavy rainfall, and high temperatures can significantly reduce crop yields and quality or in severe instances cause total crop failure due to heat stress or prolonged drought. Climate change also affects soil water availability and carbon storage, contributing to increased food shortages.

Over the past 10 years, Egypt has implemented several pilot climate adaptation projects using national and international funds: the Sustainable Agriculture Investments and Livelihoods Project (SAIL), from 2014 to 2023; Building Resilient Food Security Systems to Benefit the Southern Egypt Region, from 2013 to 2018; and Enhancing Climate Change Adaptation in the North Coast and Nile Delta Regions in Egypt, from 2018 to 2024.

However, they, like prior policies, have had questionable impact.

A study by the Arab Reform Initiative on agricultural and food policies in Egypt between 2014 and 2021 indicates that Egypt's present agricultural and food policies are largely a continuation of those from the Hosni Mubarak era. This includes centralizing land reclamation efforts, focusing on mass production, prioritizing access to land and water resources for major Egyptian and foreign investors, emphasizing export-oriented agriculture, and sidelining small-scale farmers and local food producers.

Egypt's present agricultural and food policies are largely a continuation of those from the Mubarak era. This includes centralizing land reclamation efforts, focusing on mass production, prioritizing access to land and water resources for major Egyptian and foreign investors, emphasizing export-oriented agriculture, and sidelining small-scale farmers and local food producers.

The current policies diverge from those of former President Husni Mubarak by featuring a significant role for military-owned companies in agricultural and food projects and national projects increasingly being concentrated under the control of the president and his close associates. For example, take Presidential Decree No. 621. It was issued in 2020 and allocated 930,000 acres of state land to the National Service Projects Organization, a subordinate to the Egyptian Ministry of Defense in the Toshka Depression.

“Changes in climate are not taken into account at all at the level of practices,” the study’s author, rural sociologist Saker El Nour, told Raseef22. He criticized the absence of policies that address the impact of heat waves on agricultural production and prevailing agricultural exploitation patterns, such as crop pattern change, water needs, and the production of resistant plant varieties.

El Nour also highlighted how projects funded by international institutions such as the FAO or international aid agencies are constricted by funding timelines. “They do not represent sustainable and stable public policies and are implemented in very limited scopes.”

Egypt’s 2022 updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), its self-defined national climate pledges under the Paris Agreement, outline adaptation policy actions and measures for the agriculture sector. The country plans to modernize irrigation for 4 million feddans, improve water use efficiency by 20 percent, and adopt more resilient crop species. One feddan is about 4,200 square meters. Egypt aims to develop livestock, poultry, and fish protection and immunization programs, alongside new techniques for producing high-nutrition animal fodder.

Government officials plan to review policies to prevent land degradation due to Mediterranean Sea level rise, with adaptations for waterlogged lands. Egypt will also build an “effective” crisis and disaster management system per the NDCs, enhancing monitoring, forecasting, early warning, and regional information exchange. This is in addition to the government’s plans for conducting economic risk assessments for climate impacts on agriculture and rural communities. However, the NDCs fail to provide actionable steps to achieve Egypt’s goals.

“Points related to agriculture in the updated NDCs are rhetorical and do not express a clear vision for achieving a just agricultural transition,” El Nour said.

“Points related to agriculture in the updated NDCs are rhetorical and do not express a clear vision for achieving a just agricultural transition,” El Nour said.

Additionally, the NDCs lack a critical view of the unequal ecological exchange between more and less developed countries and the climate debt discussed at recent UN Conferences of the Parties (COPs).

El Nour criticized Egypt’s Eurocentric perspective on climate change funding, citing their decision to allocate $196 billion for mitigation policies compared to the $50 billion it allocated for adaptation.

Some activists criticize the push for more mitigation in poorer countries. While richer countries can afford to pay to mitigate the effects of climate change, poorer countries often do not have that same luxury and must prioritize adaptation to better fend off the climate crisis. El Nour argues the high cost of climate change varies in how it impacts millions of those in or near poverty across the world. Consequently, there is an “urgent need to focus on adaptation and preparing vulnerable areas and communities as a priority over mitigation.” 

The marginalization of small landowners

Small land-holders, those with land areas of less than five feddans, constitute the majority of landowners in Egypt. These small farmers are projected to be the most affected by the climate crisis. Their marginalization in Egypt’s policies makes them even more vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

The NDCs include one line mentioning small farmers, discussing support “in adapting to climate change through the multi-stakeholder engagement approach, capacity building in the resource management of their land, and promote [the] use of traditional knowledge and nature-based solutions.” El Nour’s study finds that words such as “farmers” or “agricultural workers” are absent from Egypt Vision 2030, its long-term sustainable development strategy.

One of the areas predicted to witness significant agricultural losses due to the climate crisis is the northern Delta. According to El Nour, seawater rising and extreme weather events that lead to damaged crops and less productivity majorly impact the northern Delta. This in turn affects farmers’ livelihoods and agricultural production, leading to waves of inflation in food prices (also known as “climate inflation”).

One of the areas predicted to witness significant agricultural losses due to the climate crisis is the northern Delta. Seawater rising and extreme weather events that lead to damaged crops and less productivity majorly impact the northern Delta. This in turn affects farmers’ livelihoods and agricultural production, leading to waves of inflation in food prices (also known as “climate inflation”).

Consequently, the lower and middle classes increasingly struggle to access healthy and safe food, exacerbating their suffering and reducing their capacity to live and produce. With local agriculture producing about 60 percent of Egypt’s consumption according to El Nour, food insecurity amid a climate crisis continues to grow. 

Food (in)security

The diet of Egypt's growing population of 114 million people heavily relies on bread as a staple food. The country's per capita wheat consumption is over twice the global average, reaching an estimated 1,153.830 calories per person daily. This figure is more than double the combined daily consumption of meat, seafood, eggs, milk, butter, and rice, FAO data shows. Egypt produces about 9 million metric tons of wheat annually. It imports an additional 12 to 13 million metric tons to meet domestic demand, making it the largest wheat importer in the world.

Consequently, the impacts of climate change on wheat yields are not just a concern but an existential threat. Studies predict climate change could lead to a decline in wheat crop yields by 10 to 12 percent and maize by 13 to 15 percent as early as 2030. Plummeting yields would thus severely jeopardize food security in the country. It would also push Egypt deeper into import dependency, making it more vulnerable to international food shocks, similar to the crisis that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The impacts of climate change on wheat yields are not just a concern but an existential threat.

The World Food Programme currently estimates that 14.4 percent of the Egyptian population is food insecure, and malnutrition is at a 13 percent stunting rate. About 30 percent of Egyptians live below the income poverty line.

Egypt is exploring partnerships to boost food security without depleting its scarce water resources. One such initiative involves investing to cultivate 20,000 hectares of arable land in the water-abundant Congolese city of Mossendjo in exchange for 60 percent of its wheat and rice yields.

Because of censorship and a shortage of funding, El Nour notes there is a lack of in-depth studies that assess the impact of climate change on food production and resource utilization in Egypt. “There are predictions about the decline in productivity of many crops, but understanding the impact and evaluating the reality … requires support for agricultural research and fieldwork. It also necessitates a monitoring, follow-up, and early warning system for farmers, along with recommendations for agricultural practices to mitigate the damage from sudden heat increases.”

Water Scarcity and the “Gift of the Nile”

Even before taking the impacts of climate change into account, Egypt is also confronting a critical water scarcity issue. Since the late 1970s, Egypt's annual renewable water supply per capita decreased significantly, dropping from 1,426 cubic meters per person per year to approximately 500 cubic meters, which is well below the Falkenmark water scarcity threshold of 1,000 cubic meters per person per year.

To social and environmental researcher Yasmine Hafez, the issue of water scarcity in Egypt is worsened by multiple crises. “In Egypt, societies whose livelihoods depend on water resources face trauma induced by the climate crisis, the economic crisis, and a regime that imposes political censorship.” 

To social and environmental researcher Yasmine Hafez, the issue of water scarcity in Egypt is worsened by multiple crises. “In Egypt, societies whose livelihoods depend on water resources face trauma induced by the climate crisis, the economic crisis, and a regime that imposes political censorship.” She explained how this censorship not only restrains data and research but also hinders researchers' ability to access these communities, which impedes efforts to address the pressing environmental challenges they face.

Due to climate change, the water flow of the Nile River Basin is increasingly inconsistent, leading to more frequent floods and droughts. Sea levels and the intrusion of seawater into the Nile are already diminishing the river's freshwater resources. Furthermore, extreme temperatures and unpredictable precipitation patterns are anticipated to enhance surface water evaporation throughout the country, worsening drought conditions and leading to crop failures. In 2015, the Nile regions faced their most severe drought in half a century, resulting in widespread crop failures, skyrocketing food prices, and millions going hungry. The following year, massive floods displaced hundreds of thousands, killed over 25, and destroyed homes along the riverbanks.

Since the Nile is only about a meter above sea level, rising sea levels can lead to a reduction in the river's size. The Nile is already shrinking at a concerning rate of 3 to 5 millimeters annually, one study concluded. A rise in sea levels by 0.5 to 1 meter is projected to reduce the Nile by 19 to 32 percent, potentially depleting up to one-third of the river's freshwater resources by the end of the century due to climate change.

“Climate change will disproportionately impact water availability and quality for the [Egyptian] population, with effects varying based on their geographic and economic status,” environmental researcher and physical oceanographer Ahmed el-Adawy said. He stressed, “The impacts of climate change should not be considered in isolation from the current challenges and adaptation capacities of farmers, particularly in pollution hotspots and water-stressed regions in Egypt as a whole, and northern Delta specifically”.

Climate change will significantly affect Egypt’s agriculture sector. Agriculture is Egypt’s primary water-consuming sector, using over 80 percent of Egypt’s water resources. altering the irrigation requirements for crops and shifting seasons. Altered irrigation requirements for crops, shifting seasons, rising heat, and pollution are expected impacts on agriculture. This all affects fish populations thus the livelihoods of fishermen. Nomadic communities such as those in Qusair and Marsa Alam now find less water, which affects their way of life, Hafez highlighted.

In 2017 Egypt launched the National Water Resources Plan 2037, a strategy to maximize the use of available water resources and improve water management over 20 years. The 900 billion Egyptian pound (~$18.45 billion) plan focuses on purifying and recycling water, including industrial wastewater, to ensure efficient usage. It aims to rationalize agricultural water consumption by implementing modern irrigation systems and using water-efficient seeds. The plan also seeks to enhance cooperation with Nile Basin countries and develop new water sources, such as desalination plants in coastal areas and rainwater collection.

While el-Adawy praised government investments looking to enhance water management efficiency, such as canal lining and large-scale water treatment projects, he called for the exploration of alternatives. These include decentralized projects, “which could significantly reduce the operational costs of these large-scale initiatives and improve local participation in resource management.”

Greater attention should be given to other policies within Egypt, el-Adawy added. He mentioned the expansion of low-density desert cities, which have a higher water and carbon footprint compared to older cities, as one problematic example.

The climate crisis in Egypt may also be worsened by its relationship with other countries. An ongoing example of this is the conflict between Nile Basin countries, primarily Egypt and Ethiopia, centered around the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Despite multiple rounds of negotiations, the deadlock persists as Ethiopia went ahead with GERD’s fifth filling in June 2024.

“In the negotiations around GERD, there is a major question around who will pay the price of drought. Climate change is only perplexing data and expectations of the future, and it will intensify political discourse in Egypt and Ethiopia,” Hafez said.

El-Adawy believes that “the climate crisis has the potential to drive both countries towards increased cooperation or heightened conflict.”

“If both governments actively pursue intelligent and efficient collaboration strategies, it would maximize the capacities of both nations in addressing the significant uncertainties regarding future water availability. Conversely, if the governments persist with self-centered policies, they will not only forgo substantial opportunities for effective management but also exacerbate the adverse impacts of climate change on the populations reliant on the river,” el-Adawy argued.

The increasing uncertainties in water availability are adding significant pressure on all Nile dam operators—not only GERD. As el-Adawy pointed out, Egypt-based operators of the High Aswan Dam will face difficult and unprecedented decisions in managing it under the conditions of water scarcity and floods.

“Given the critical role of the Aswan High Dam reservoir, often referred to as Egypt's ‘Water Bank,’ in managing water resources, the absence of a collaborative plan linking all dam operations could further complicate decision-making,” el-Adawy stated.

A study conducted at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology suggests the water demand gap in Egypt is currently being met through “virtual water,” the hidden flow of water through food imports. For example, importing one ton of maize is equivalent to bringing in 1,100 tons of water. The study projects that Egypt’s imports of virtual water will reach 61.5 cubic kilometers by 2030 to compensate for water scarcity.

“At the current pace of population and economic growth, Egypt will be importing as much virtual water as it receives from the Nile within the next decade,” Professor Elfatih Eltahir, one of the study’s authors, told Raseef22.

“That brings into question the historical characterization of Egypt as the Gift of the Nile,” Eltahir said.

“At the current pace of population and economic growth, Egypt will be importing as much virtual water as it receives from the Nile within the next decade,” Professor Elfatih Eltahir, one of the authors of an MIT study on water scarcity in Egypt, tells Raseef22. “That brings into question the historical characterization of Egypt as the Gift of the Nile.” 

Threats to Biodiversity and Nature’s Contributions to People

According to an environmental policy expert who spoke to Raseef22, coastal flooding and erosion resulting from rising sea levels also threaten various ecosystems in Egypt, including coastal wetlands, sand dunes, and agricultural areas. The expert, who preferred to remain anonymous, emphasized the resulting destruction of these ecosystems impacts saltwater and freshwater biodiversity and reduces nature’s contributions to coastal protection, fisheries, nurseries, and agricultural productivity. Saltwater intrusion further disrupts the salinity balance in aquatic ecosystems, reducing freshwater availability and impacting biological diversity and agricultural yields.

Extreme weather events and even minor temperature changes can adversely affect species’ ability to secure food and shelter, reproduce, and survive diseases, he added. These temperature-related ecological imbalances promote the proliferation of invasive species, leading to competition with native species.

One example of a dangerous invasive species is the Indian Jungle Crow. Introduced through shipping routes, it has become dominant in the Red Sea Coast and Gulf of Suez, outcompeting local bird species. Meanwhile, a large number of species in Egypt face the risk of extinction, including Egypt’s national animal, the steppe eagle.

According to the expert, nature-based solutions are essential for facing the impact of climate change in Egypt. For example, the Ministry of Agriculture can enhance pesticide policies to protect pollinators such as bees and birds. The General Authority for Fisheries Resources Development can engage in ecosystem restoration and strengthen resilience in protected areas.

However, such projects are uncommon.

“I believe biodiversity conservation and sustainable use efforts have been extremely lacking,” the expert said.

Egypt intentionally "weakens" the Ministry of Environment to align the state with broader political-economic goals rather than achieving sustainable outcomes. The government underfunds and undersupports the ministry, leading it to heavily rely on international funding and grants.

The expert believes Egypt intentionally "weakens" the Ministry of Environment to align the state with broader political-economic goals rather than achieving sustainable outcomes. The government underfunds and undersupports the ministry, leading it to heavily rely on international funding and grants. “Consequently, there's a substantial brain drain of environmental experts from the public sector, many of whom immigrate to Arab Gulf countries or transition to private sector roles as environmental consultants.

One notable example of the Ministry of Environment implementing nature-based solutions is the 2017 Migratory Soaring Birds project (MSB). The initiative integrates biodiversity considerations into the planning and operation of wind farms, especially in ecologically sensitive migratory bird flyways.

“Climate mitigation efforts have shown to increase threats to biodiversity, therefore projects like MSB are making mitigation efforts more sustainable,” the expert noted. "

He argues that to protect nature and its contributions to people effectively, the inclusion of local communities and their traditional knowledge in research and environmental decision-making is crucial. Ongoing dispossession and exclusion of these communities undermine conservation efforts.

“If you want to protect nature and its contributions to people, you have to learn from those who live closest to nature and depend most on it for their livelihoods,” he stated.

*This article was edited and proofread with the assistance of Zoe Wolfsen.